Monday, 26 February 2018

Divergence wins bigly

"Divergence wins: Brexiteers claim victory after Chequers talks", it says here.

And it looks as if they're right. Following the official announcement that divergence had won the day, the UK's main opposition party diverged from the government-led consensus that Brexit means no single market and no customs union, by embracing "a" customs union (AKA "the" customs union, rebranded to save face).*

Meanwhile, the Scottish government apparently wants to diverge from the "no single market" bit; "BREXIT Minister Michael Russell will tonight warn that the Scottish Government is prepared to pass its own laws to protect the country's place in the European single market".

Yep, divergence seems to be on a roll, all right.

Oh, hang on, apparently that's not what they meant by "divergence".

Honestly, there's no pleasing some people.


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*Update and correction - it would be "a" customs union, as the UK couldn't leave the EU and still be part of the existing customs union. Although I was right to imagine that some degree of face-saving would necessarily be involved - agreeing "a"customs union EU would necessarily involve some of the same restrictions as being an EU member, only without the influence:
An independent trade policy would be restricted by a common external tariff, as Turkey demonstrates. If the EU grants preferential tariff reductions to a country, Turkey must also do so – but without being party to the agreement. Turkey has been unable to reach agreements with Algeria, South Africa, or Mexico following their FTAs with the EU because its tariffs (a key bargaining chip) have already been liberalised. In this scenario, the EU would partly dictate UK trade policy, as the UK would not be present in negotiations that directly affects its market.
And it goes without saying that the EU has absolutely zero incentive to make "a" customs union for the awkward member who just flounced out of their club a better deal than "the" customs union enjoyed by fully paid-up members. I'm still not seeing any plausible version of Brexit which is an improvement on what the UK currently has as an EU member.

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