According to the Telegraph 'The Liberal Democrats will be out of office for fifty years, grandees fear, after the parliamentary party was all but wiped out in “cruel and punishing night”'. I'm sure they have been wiped out for now and for the foreseeable future, but fifty years isn't the foreseeable future, unless you're Nostradamus (and not even then, because his "predictions" are completely worthless).
Imagine a 'grandee' from 1965 trying to make a firm prediction about what the next half century would hold for any given political party, based on contemporary events. It was a different world back then:
But never mind the grandees - the article also makes a claim about William Hague having a crystal ball that's proved accurate over a more plausible time period:
Imagine a 'grandee' from 1965 trying to make a firm prediction about what the next half century would hold for any given political party, based on contemporary events. It was a different world back then:
- A minority Labour government had been elected the previous year and 1965 saw the Conservative Party leadership pass from Alec Douglas-Home, son of Lord Dunglass, the 13th Earl of Home and Lady Lillian Lambton, to Edward Heath, son of a carpenter and a maid.
- De Gaulle was still holding firm in his determination to veto British membership of the Common Market, as it was called in those days (AFAIK, the Labour party were against joining at the time, anyway).
- In the previous year's elections, Jo Grimmond's Liberals had secured 9 seats with 5.9% of the vote (for comparison, the Lib Dems got 8 seats on 7.9% in 2015, so maybe this bit isn't so different).
- No party other than Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberals had managed to get an MP elected in 1964.
- Trade union membership, which had been rising steadily since the 1930s, stood at over 10 million.
- Tony Crosland had just issued Circular 10/65, asking Local Education Authorities in England and Wales to start converting their secondary schools to the new Comprehensive System.
- The unemployment rate was 1.5%.
- Britain still had foreign exchange controls.
- The Gambia became independent from the United Kingdom.
- The Confederation of British Industry was being founded.
- Mary Whitehouse was setting up the National Viewers' and Listeners' Association.
- The Race Relations Act outlawed public racial discrimination.
- The US President Lyndon B. Johnson, having declared War on Poverty the previous year, signed the Social Security Act of 1965 into law, establishing Medicare and Medicaid.
- Alexei Kosygin, who had just replaced Nikita Khrushchev as Premier of the Soviet Union, seemed to be taking the world's second superpower in a new direction.
But never mind the grandees - the article also makes a claim about William Hague having a crystal ball that's proved accurate over a more plausible time period:
William Hague had foreseen the rout. On completing the coalition negotiations in 2010, he is said to have told his wife, Ffion: “I think I’ve just destroyed the Liberals.”What interests me here isn't the alleged prediction of a reasonably foreseeable outcome ('The lion will lay down with the lamb, but the lamb won't get much sleep', as someone once said), but the implication that destroying the Lib Dems was always part of a thought-out Conservative strategy, rather than just being a byproduct of the sort of power imbalances which generally stop seven-stone weaklings prevailing against 800-pound gorillas. Hague's quote sounds too apocryphal to clear that one up, though.
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